DeFi Talks - Are decentralized gambling platform a thing or is it just another "transitory" narrative?
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Let’s start…
INTRO:
What if I can tell that DeFi could easily incorporate a 460B$ industry, and make it better and bigger?
I’m talking about the gambling market, yes, I know, many think it’s unethical, but the reality is that we can’t change human nature, we can only create a better environment. This is what DeFi can do providing better tools, more transparency and access to advanced strategies to reduce the risk.
Today, I want to share with you a new and promising platform that goes exactly in this direction.
Moving onto the macro part, something important is happening in this world and we are starting to discount the "higher for longer" scenario, no one knows where we are going to end up but we can watch an important indicator to better understand all these dynamics, stick with us to find out!
INTO THE RABBIT HOLE:
DeFi TVL is still in “crab-mode” since February 1st, surprisingly we are not seeing a relevant drop after yesterday's speech from J. Powell after he hinted a possible 50bps rate hike in the next meeting, we are all hoping for a crypto decoupling from TradFi but macro data still play a crucial role in this market environment and we can't ignore them.
Going more into detail we can see a downward correction on almost every chain as the market adjust to the good (bad) data, will it remain just a correction?
FLASH NEWS:
Berachain, an upcoming EVM-compatible Layer 1 released his new blockchain framework Polaris for EVM compatibility, click here for more details;
Kava, an EVM-compatible Layer 1, launches its $180m incentive program;
A new Maker DAO proposal has been submitted with the intention to extend the already ongoing U.S. treasury bond investments from $500M to $1.25B.
They are also considering the possible use of tokenized stocks/bonds as collateral to borrow $DAI.
PROTOCOL OF THE WEEK:
Let’s dive into this 460B$ market.
In the last month, we have seen the initial boom of decentralized gambling platforms as people are understanding how big this market can be, considering that in the “real world” it accounts for around $85B only for sports betting.
There is still a long way to go before these platforms become something but being at their early stage means that the upside potential is here and can explode at any time (if market conditions don’t worsen).
In particular, there’s a platform that stands out among the others, we could call it the “DeFi degen heaven” of betting and its name is Polymarket.
Their slogan is “Put your money where your mouth is on politics, crypto, culture, tech, & more” and I can assure you they aren’t kidding, on Polymarket you can really bet on any event that comes to your mind:
from Binance insolvency to who will win the U.S. 2024 presidential nominations.
You just need to create an account, sign some transactions, deposit some funds and you are done!
Now, the platform works using an order book which means that there are buys (bids) and sells (asks) orders submitted by users willing to buy or sell at a price, a bit like a normal trading platform, moreover, there are both market and limit orders to ensure a smooth user experience.
Understanding the potential of this platform is crucial as you can use it, other than simple gamble, as a way to hedge your portfolio.
If for example news comes out about a possible hole in the Binance balance sheet you can bet on it and cover yourself in case it happens (hopefully not) or you can bet against the Arbitrum airdrop before a certain time:
-If the airdrop is confirmed you lose your bet but win the airdrop;
-If the airdrop doesn’t take place you don’t lose anything and you also win the bet;
There are obviously risks related to the platform itself which can be smart contract exploits etc. so don’t ape your net worth right away, also remember that gambling can become addictive and you should understand what you are doing.
They are growing really fast on Twitter and the path ahead seems to be the right one, make sure to follow them on Twitter so you don’t lose any updates!
MACRO TALKS:
So now what happens? Is the party over?
Tuesday Powell spoke at a conference, from his speech we expect:
- higher interest rates and a faster pace
- it will be hard to get inflation down and there is still no clear signs of it
As we can see from the picture below of the September 2023 rate expectation, markets have begun to discount high rates for much longer and no cut in 2023, currently, the market expects Fed Funds to peak at 5.6 percent in September, earlier February the expected peak was about 4.8 percent.
After Powell's words markets immediately priced in the greater possibility of a 50bps rise for the march 22 meeting coming to expect it at 70%
We will look closely at next Friday's labor market data and comment on it together in the next edition, have a good week, and happy investing!
Support us:
Donate using any EVM-compatible crypto: 0x1db2bC5951A75C61E12C1A5e8C0475FBb9df95eD
And don’t forget to follow us on:
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/myDeFiTalks
Telegram: https://t.me/defitalks_updates